Seasonal forecast quality of the West African monsoon rainfall regimes by multiple forecast systems

S4CAST seasonal forecast model

Introduction Conclusions References

Weather Derivatives and Seasonal Forecast

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) seasonal forecast in the temperature process so that conditional means and conditional variances of both the temperature and the CDD (Cooling Degree Day) may be redetermined in accordance with the seasonal forecasting probabilities. Under the Gaussian property of the underlying process, the prices of the CDD options...

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following

the comparison of the seasonal rainfall forecast precision by box-jenkins models(case study: selected stations of khozestan province)

because of the increasing importance of supplying water for the country, water resource management is of paramount importance. predicting precipitation, as one of the most important climatic parameters, is especially important in using water supplies. time series can be used to predict precipitation. time series analysis seems to be a suitable tool for such forecasting. the present work studies...

Quantifying IT forecast quality

In this paper, we showed how to quantify the quality of IT forecasts based on Boehm’s cone of uncertainty and DeMarco’s Estimating Quality Factor. With these, we support decision making by providing critical information on IT forecasting quality to IT governors. We illustrated that plotting forecast to actual ratios against a predefined referential conical shape reveals potential biases, for in...